Even after four years since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective—to gain control of Kyiv—still eludes him.
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Even after four years since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective—to gain control of Kyiv—still eludes him.
Russia is approaching a dark milestone: by mid-January, President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine will have lasted longer than the war that began with Nazi Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941 and ended with the fall of Berlin in May 1945. Putin is historically obsessed with World War II, and the official veneration of the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany is part of the ideological glue that holds the Russian state together. Putin’s Russia has even seen the rehabilitation of Joseph Stalin, the communist dictator who oversaw the ruthless purges of the 1930s and then led the country in what Russia calls the Great Patriotic War.
Even after four years since the full-scale
Yet, nearly four years after the full-scale assault on Ukraine, a decisive victory over Kyiv remains beyond the Kremlin leader’s grasp: Russia occupies about 20% of Ukrainian territory, the war has cost Moscow an estimated more than one million casualties, and perhaps the most humiliating aspect for Putin’s war aims is that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy remains in power.
But as the year draws to a close, Putin is exuding confidence that time is on his side and victory is inevitable. Ahead of a summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December, Putin told India Today in an interview that Russia would “liberate Donbas and Novorossiya by all means—military or otherwise,” sticking to his demand for the acquisition of all Ukrainian territories claimed by Russia, including those not seized by force by his troops.
And this bloody-minded determination appears to be a bargaining tactic. Putin is certainly aware that U.S. President Donald Trump is determined to cut a deal on Ukraine, and the Russian leader has done everything possible to exploit Washington’s eagerness to end the war.
At his annual press conference, the Russian president said his country was ready and willing to “end the conflict by peaceful means”—but not without noting that his troops were “advancing along the entire front.”
And a few days later, in his traditional New Year’s Eve television address, Putin appealed to Russians to support “our heroes” fighting in Ukraine, saying, “We believe in you and in our victory!”
The reasons for Putin’s bluster are clear. First, the Kremlin leader has seen serious cracks appear in the united Western front backing Kyiv after Trump’s inauguration in January. In February, U.S. Vice President JD Vance surprised European leaders by addressing the Munich Security Conference with a critique of Washington’s transatlantic allies. That was followed by public rebukes of Zelenskyy from Trump and Vance at the Oval Office.
A few months later, the Kremlin scored another public relations victory with the Putin-Trump summit in Anchorage, Alaska. Although the summit failed to usher in a spring in U.S.-Russia relations, for Putin it was more than just a photo opportunity: the Russian president succeeded in buying more time for his grinding war against Ukraine.
But Putin’s apparent reluctance to engage seriously in peace efforts after Anchorage eventually tested Trump’s patience. An invitation for a second bilateral U.S.-Russia summit in Budapest failed, and the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies. The U.S. president, who often praises Putin, expressed frustration with his Russian counterpart.
Still, the ice between Washington and Moscow seemed sufficiently thawed to allow an unconventional U.S. diplomatic effort led by Trump’s former business partner Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to proceed.
Following Witkoff and Kushner’s visit to the Kremlin in early December, a series of high-level diplomatic engagements involving Zelenskyy and European leaders began, focusing more on hammering out the finer points of a potential deal.
By mid-December, Trump’s assessment was optimistic, with the U.S. president telling reporters, “We are closer than ever to a peace agreement.”
But by year’s end, Putin still appears to be playing the role of potential deal-breaker: while Zelenskyy met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago last week to discuss a revised peace agreement, the Kremlin leader has kept up his own series of phone calls with the U.S. president alongside that meeting.
And the Russian position on peace talks now appears to be hardening. In his conversation with Trump on Monday, Putin informed his American counterpart about an alleged Ukrainian drone attack on his Valdai residence in the Novgorod region, according to a readout by Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov given to Russian radio.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also expressed anger over the alleged attack—which Zelenskyy called a “complete fabrication”—saying that “Russia’s negotiating position will be revised amid the ongoing peace process.”
Some Kremlin observers doubt that Putin would accept any deal that crosses his red lines. The outline of such a deal is still emerging, but the Russian side has long been clear about key complications.
Recently, Russian Deputy Prime Sergei Ryabkov reiterated them in an interview with ABC News: Moscow is not prepared to surrender any of the Ukrainian territories it claims, and there should be no NATO military presence in Ukraine after the war ends.
Russian political analyst Tatiana Stanovaya wrote on X (formerly Twitter) following the latest talks at Mar-a-Lago: “Lavrov, Ushakov, (Kremlin spokesman Dmitry) Peskov, and Putin himself (who has stressed ‘we will achieve our goals’ while stepping up engagements with the military) have made it clear that the revised plan is completely unacceptable. Yet Washington continues to engage with Kyiv, and speaks of ‘progress’ that Moscow considers imaginary.”
She wrote: “The Russian story about the drone attack on Putin’s residence is precisely about that: banging the table loudly so that the West finally hears that the current peace talks are moving in a direction completely unacceptable to Moscow and to derail the emerging U.S.-Ukrainian framework.”
Putin has Trump’s ear but has yet to silence these conflicting voices. How much of the Kremlin’s confidence is smoke and mirrors is the big question.
In November, Putin donned camouflage to visit a military command post, its location undisclosed, where Russian Army Commander-in-Chief General Valery Gerasimov claimed that Russian troops were occupying the eastern town of Kopiansk.
Just a few weeks later, Putin’s glow was dimmed by Zelenskyy, who posted a video of a visit to Kopiansk, showing him in body armor standing in front of a marked—and entirely geolocatable—signboard. When asked about the video later during his annual press conference, Putin joked, calling the Ukrainian president “a talented actor” putting on theater.
It is difficult to gauge the mood in Russia—one can go to jail for criticizing the military—and the economy continues to move forward, although growth is sluggish and due to Ukrainian campaign strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, which is the foundation of Moscow’s economic power.
Still, Putin’s grip on unchallenged authority gives him leverage in any peace process. The number of war dead in cemeteries across provincial Russia may continue to grow, but no parliament can pressure him, no political opposition threatens him, and a seemingly passive population means he can continue his war on Ukraine.
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Even after four years since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s objective—to gain control of Kyiv—still eludes him.
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