Russia Unlikely to Risk 'Reputational Failure

Russia Unlikely to Risk ‘Reputational Failure’ by Intervening in Iran’s Unrest, Analysts Say

Subheading: Former diplomat and experts decode Moscow’s muted response to protests and political tensions.

The Kremlin believes that the recent wave of mass protests in Iran has peaked and that Tehran’s leadership has successfully quelled domestic dissent, according to one of Russia’s leading experts on Iran.

Nikita Smagin, an analyst who fled Russia following its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, told Al Jazeera that the Russian embassy in Tehran likely informed Moscow that protests have subsided, allowing the Kremlin to “breathe a sigh of relief.”

The protests, triggered by economic hardship, erupted on December 28 and spread across hundreds of cities and towns in the sanctions-hit nation of over 90 million people. Iranian security forces suppressed them, reportedly with violence. Moscow now “thinks that nothing threatens Iran from within,” Smagin said.

On Tuesday, Russia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs broke its near two-week silence on the unrest. It condemned what it called “illegal Western pressure” and denounced unnamed “external forces” seeking to “destabilise and destroy” the Islamic Republic.

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Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova claimed, “The notorious methods of ‘colour revolutions’ are being used, where specifically trained and armed provocateurs turn peaceful protests into cruel and senseless lawlessness, pogroms, and the killing of law enforcement officers and ordinary citizens, including children.”

This rhetoric echoes a longstanding Kremlin narrative that popular uprisings in former Soviet states like Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan in the early 2000s were Western-funded plots to topple Moscow-friendly governments.

Zakharova also labeled recent threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to interfere in the protests as “categorically unacceptable.” She suggested that the “decline in the artificially-instigated protests” could lead to stabilization in Iran. President Trump had urged Iranians to “take over institutions” and promised U.S. help was “on its way.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not publicly commented on the Iranian protests—a silence mirrored in his response to the January 3 abduction of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, another key Moscow ally.

Despite condemning Trump’s threats, Smagin believes Moscow “can hardly do anything about it” in practical terms.

Analysts suggest Russia’s initial muted response stemmed from uncertainty. Smagin posited that the Kremlin was unsure if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s administration would survive and feared that strong statements “would hinder the mending of ties with new authorities” potentially replacing it.

This posture mirrors Russia’s reaction to the ousting of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December 2024. His successor, President Ahmed al-Sharaa, visited Moscow in October 2025 and pledged to honor all previous agreements with Russia, including energy contracts and military base access.

A Familiar Narrative

To observers in Ukraine, Moscow’s cries of “colour revolution” are a tired cliché. “Russia interprets any protests against dictatorship and mass rallies for democratisation as a result of external meddling,” Kyiv-based analyst Vyacheslav Likhachev told Al Jazeera.

The Kremlin has extended this narrative to uprisings beyond its immediate sphere, including the Arab Spring that toppled leaders in Egypt and Libya, and uses it to discredit domestic opposition as the work of “foreign ill-wishers.”

The Situation in Iran

Iranian authorities have similarly accused foreign nations of fomenting the unrest. An Israeli government-aligned TV channel claimed “foreign agents” armed protesters.

While several analysts acknowledge the protesters’ legitimate grievances, some suspect Israel is exploiting the tensions to inflame the situation.

Iranian state media reports over 100 security personnel killed in two weeks of unrest. Opposition activists cite a much higher death toll, claiming thousands of protesters have died. Al Jazeera cannot independently verify these figures amid a nationwide internet blackout that has entered its fifth day.